Original Publish Date » March 26 , 2025
Last Updated » 4 weeks

Highlights

  • Confidence of a Liberal win high
  • US SignalGate fiasco continues

The Numbers

» CBC Poll Tracker » Liberals widen their lead in national polls » Liberals 40% / Conservatives 37.3% / NDP 9.8% / BQ 6.4% / Green 3.2% / People’s Party 2.2% (CBC Poll Tracker  – March 26, 2025)

  • The Liberals are continuing to climb in the polls and are widening their lead over the Conservatives, putting them deeper into majority territory. The Conservatives are holding their vote but it is the steep slide for the New Democrats, who have dropped into the single-digits in popular support, that is contributing to the rise in the Liberals’ numbers.

338Canada Federal Election Projections » Liberals 41% / Conservative 37% / NDP 10% / BQ 6% / Green 4% (338Canada – March 26, 2025)

» The latest Leger survey, reports that 44% of decided voters surveyed say they would vote Liberal in the upcoming election, ahead of the Conservatives at 38%. The NDP are in a distant third place at 6%. The poll also revealed 48% of those surveyed believe the Liberals are going to win the election, compared with just 31% who think the Conservatives will. (CP)

» A Vancouver-based pollster says some of the federal NDP’s B.C. strongholds are in jeopardy. Research Co. has found the two biggest parties in a statistical tie in B.C., with 41% for the Liberals and 39% for the Conservatives. The NDP have sunk to just 8%. (Global News)

On The Campaign Trail

» Liberal Leader Mark Carney unveiled a $2-billion proposal to protect Canada’s auto industry during Trump’s trade war while in Windsor, Ontario today. Calling it a “strategic response fund,” Carney said the money would be used to boost the auto sector’s competitiveness, protect manufacturing jobs, help workers gain expertise and build “a fortified Canadian supply chain.” (CBC)

  • Later in the day » Trump signs executive order placing 25% import tax on imported autos to take effect April 2. Details remain unclear but the import taxes are global. So nothing new here. This was previously announced. This unexpected announcement may be orcastrated as a distraction from the SignalGate fiasco.  (AP / CBC / Politico / CBS / Axios)
  • Prime Minister Mark Carney calls Trump’s tariffs on vehicles ‘a direct attack’ on Canada and its auto workers. Carney is returning to Ottawa in a break from the election campaign to chair a meeting of the cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations. Carney warned this new tariff could cause substantial damage to Canada’s auto sector. He said he still wants to see the written order before the scope of the order is clear. “We await the executive order for that clarity, but to be absolutely clear that even in the more restricted version of this, it is a significant action,” he said. “It’s entirely unjustified.” (Globe and Mail // Video » CTV)

» Slogans. Sound bites. Slander. “He’s a conspiracy theorist. He spends too much time with his MAGA friends,” Mark Carney said of Poilievre this morning in Windsor, ON. Poilievre accused Carney yesterday of having held “secret talks” with an official from China.

» About SignalGate » Mark Carney said the intelligence blunder was a “serious, serious issue and all lessons must be taken”. He said it would be critical to see “how people react to those mistakes and how they tighten them up.” Carney said, “My responsibility is to plan for the worst, is to think about the most difficult evolution of the new threat environment, what it means for Canada and how do we best protect Canada.” “Part of that response is to be more and more Canadian in our defence capabilities, more and more Canadian in our decisions … We have to look out for ourselves.” Canada is one of the members of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing network, alongside Australia, New Zealand and the UK and the leak of classified information is likely to put further strain on the group as it weighs how seriously the current American administration takes the handling of top secret information. (The Guardian)

» Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is attacking Mark Carney over a report that the Liberal leader co-chaired two investment funds registered in Bermuda while he worked for Brookfield Asset Management. “His company, under his watch, put money in Bermuda to avoid paying Canadian taxes. All while Liberals force Canadians to pay higher taxes, Mark Carney dodges the bill himself. He thinks millionaires like him shouldn’t have to pay,” Poilievre said.

  • Meanwhile, Poilievre’s assets and investments list a fund that includes Brookfield. According to a list provided by the Conservative Party, Poilievre provided an update of his assets to the ethics commissioner’s office. One of those is (VCE) Vanguard FTSE Canada Index ETF, an index fund invested in the Canadian economy. One of the top assets in the VCE index fund? Brookfield Corp., which includes Carney’s old investment firm. Poilievre also holds $8,124.61 worth of bitcoin (value as Monday). (CBC)

» The book on Pierre Poilievre: He’s ‘an angry teenager in the body of a grown man’ (Globe and Mail)

» The Liberal Party revoked MP Chandra Arya’s bid to run for the party leadership and his nomination in the Ottawa riding of Nepean over alleged foreign-interference concerns involving India. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) briefed the government about Mr. Arya’s alleged close ties to the government of India. Mr. Arya took a trip to India last August and met Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mr. Arya had not informed the government of the trip. Vanessa Lloyd, deputy director of operations at CSIS, warned Monday about the likelihood of foreign interference during the federal election. (Globe and Mail)

» NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced that anyone making less than $177,882 would not pay taxes on the first $19,500 they earn, saving them about $505 annually. (CBC)

» Conservative Party would allow seniors to earn up to $34,000 tax-free (up $10,000 from the current amount) and keep their savings in RRSPs until age 73 (up from the current limit of age 71). The Conservative Party plan would keep the retirement age at 65. (National Observer / Globe and Mail)

Also

» Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is defending her plan to fly to Florida, on the taxpayer’s dime, to appear at a fun-raising event alongside far-right MAGA influencer Ben Shapiro who thinks Canada is “a silly country.” The fund-raising event if for PragerU, an American far-right advocacy group and media organization that creates content promoting MAGA viewpoints that support Donald Trump. (CP)

» A trans-Canada electric power grid (National Observer)

» There is no easy way for Canada to de-escalate the trade war (National Observer)

» Beijing’s ambassador to Canada says China is interested in stepping up trade with Canada, arguing the US is pursuing a trade war that will hurt the global economy (CP)

Elsewhere

» EU urges citizens to prepare for war with a basic 72-hour survival kit as tensions grow. EU citizens will be asked to stock up on essential items that would allow them to sustain themselves in the event of a crisis. Such items would include a flashlight, bottled water, canned food, and ID documents. It comes at a time when EU and NATO countries are enhancing their readiness for war or increased global tensions. (Express)

» Ukraine war briefing » Black Sea deal will allow Russia to profit from world grain markets (Global News / The Guardian)

» Zelenskyy in France to meet with Macron (Ukrainska Pravda)

» Almost half of Brits support the creation of a European army that included the UK. Reform UK voters are sticking close to the US. (Euronews)

» Catch 2.2 Situation » Global energy demand rose 2.2% in 2024 – nearly twice the average over the past decade – as extreme heat drove up electricity use for cooling. The IEA said weather effects alone explained the full rise in coal demand, and nearly half of record-high CO2 emissions. Despite rapid growth in renewables and nuclear, fossil fuel use also increased, with natural gas demand up 2.7%.  (International Energy Agency)

The Americans

» Incompetent or Evil: A False Dichotomy » Trump’s people can be and are both (Paul Krugman)

» Trump stressed his desire for the US to annex Greenland. Trump said the mission of VP JD Vance would be “to let them know that we need Greenland for international safety and security.” (Reuters / Bloomberg / DW)

  • US decision to skip Greenland dog-sled race welcomed by Denmark (Globe and Mail)
  • Greenlanders unite to fend off the US as Trump seeks control of the Arctic island. Trump made a strategic mistake by triggering a dispute with Greenland and Denmark rather than working with its NATO allies in Nuuk and Copenhagen, said Otto Svendsen, an Arctic expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. (PBS)

» Calling their bluff » Here Are the Attack Plans That Trump’s Advisers Shared on Signal » The Atlantic on Wednesday released the entire Signal chat among senior national security officials, showing that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth provided the exact timings of warplane launches. The administration has, so far, downplayed the importance of the text messages inadvertently sent to The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief.  (The Guardian / Le Monde / The Independent / AP / 404 Media / Politico / Vanity Fair / NBC News)

  • Sources say the details shared by Hegseth in Signal chat were classified (CNN)

» “If you’re running the security directorate of a hostile nation, savor this moment. It’s never been easier to steal secrets from the United States government. Can you even call it stealing when it’s this simple? The Trump administration has unlocked the vault doors, fired half of the security guards and asked the rest to roll pennies. Walk right in. Take what you want. This is the golden age.” (NYT)

» The stunning disclosure that top US officials discussed sensitive US military operations in Yemen on a Signal message group that mistakenly included a journalist reveals something else: the sheer amateurism of the Trump White House. (Financial Times)

  • To lend credence to the amateurish argument, Trump downplays national security team texting military operation plan on Signal as a minor ‘glitch’ (CP)
  • “Signal is a communication tool designed for confidential conversations. If someone’s brought into a conversation who’s not meant to be part of it, that’s not a technology problem. That’s an operator issue.” (Wired)

» Private data and passwords of senior U.S. security officials found online (Spiegel Online)

» A Venmo account under the name “Michael Waltz,” carrying a profile photo of the national security adviser and connected to accounts bearing the names of people closely associated with him, was left open to the public until Wednesday afternoon. The account revealed the names of hundreds of Waltz’s personal and professional associates, including journalists, military officers, lobbyists, and others—information a foreign intelligence service or other actors could exploit for any number of ends, experts say. (Wired)

» A network of companies operated by a secretive Chinese tech firm has been trying to recruit recently laid-off U.S. government workers. “What makes this activity significant is that the network seeks to exploit the financial vulnerabilities of former federal workers affected by recent mass layoffs.” (Reuters)

» ‘Trump Slump’ looms as foreign visitors rethink travel to US » A growing number of international travellers are worried about feeling unwelcome or unsafe in America and are reluctant to support the economy of a country that may be destabilizing other nations. (NYT)

» A federal judge in Anchorage has ruled in favour of Alaska’s state-owned investment bank in a lawsuit that could pave the way for oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (Alaska Beacon)

» US to end vaccine funds for poor countries » A 281-page spreadsheet obtained by The NY Times lists the Trump administration’s plans for thousands of foreign aid programs (NYT)

» Eight in 10 Americans believe the presidents should always obey federal court rulings, even as Trump’s administration criticizes judges who pause his efforts to swiftly remake the government (Reuters)

» Trump on Tuesday signed a sweeping executive action to overhaul elections in the US, including requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections and demanding that all ballots be received by Election Day. The order says the US has failed “to enforce basic and necessary election protections” and calls on states to work with federal agencies to share voter lists and prosecute election crimes. It threatens to pull federal funding from states where election officials don’t comply. (AP / NYT / BBC / France 24 / NPR)

» Trump considering a compensation fund for the pardoned Jan. 6 rioters (Axios / Politico)

» Desperate » The White House considering selling the gold reserves to fund large-scale Bitcoin purchases. (Yahoo News)

» Meanwhile, The Trump family’s crypto firm announced the launch of a stablecoin backed by U.S. Dollar (Politico)
» Trump is all in on crypto. So are the scammers (Salon)