Original Publish Date » March 30 , 2025
Last Updated » 4 weeks
The Numbers
Philippe J. Fournier at 338Canada » You’ll notice that the Liberals are ahead in every single one of them—except for the latest from Abacus Data, which has both main parties tied at 39%.
» Liberals enter second week of campaign as favourites to win
- Liberals 41.2% / Conservatives 37.8% / NDP 9.1% / BQ 5.8% / Green 2.8% / PPC 2.3%
“The Liberals enjoy a lead of about three points over the Conservatives in national polling and would likely win a majority government if an election were held today. The Bloc Québécois is sliding in Quebec while the New Democrats are on track for one of the worst election results in their party’s history. It’s the weakness of these two parties that is pushing the Liberals into majority territory, as the Conservatives are polling at the same level of support that has normally been good enough to win them elections in the past.” (CBC Poll Tracker – March 30, 2025)
» Mark Carney’s Liberals leading Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives by 5 points in latest Nanos tracking »
- The federal Liberals are emerging as frontrunners in a tightly-contested election, with a five-point lead over the Conservatives.
- Nanos Research, CTV News’ and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster, has Mark Carney’s Liberals at 42%, leading Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, who are at 37%, by five points. The New Democratic Party is at 11%, the Bloc Quebecois at 5%, Green Party of Canada at 3%, and the People’s Party of Canada at 2%.
- “Strategic voting appears to be the driving force behind the Liberals’ 5 point advantage, as voters rally to counterbalance the Conservative challenge. This dynamic is reshaping the political terrain, squeezing smaller parties out of the spotlight,” said Nanos in a release. (CTV)
» The latest Ipsos poll – conducted for Global News – shows both the Liberals and new party leader Mark Carney are continuing to pick up momentum since the election began last Sunday. The poll found 44% of decided voters would vote for the Liberals, up two points from polling conducted a week before the election. The Conservatives are at 38% support, while the NDP are at 9%. (Global News)
On the Campaign Trail
» Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre announced his second tax break of the campaign targeted at investors Sunday, promising to defer capital gains taxes if the proceeds are reinvested in Canada. (CBC)
» After a week of crossing the country on the campaign trail, Liberal leader Mark Carney is in Nepean, launching his own race (CTV)
» ‘No love lost’ » Why Ontario Premier Doug Ford may not want to cozy up to Pierre Poilievre’s campaign » “I think in Ford’s case in particular, he’s shown that he’ll work with anyone who has the same policy objectives. And I think right now, they’re as much aligned with [Liberal Leader Mark] Carney as they would be with Poilievre,” said Andrea Lawlor, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University. Poilievre has denied a Toronto Star story that he had recently called Ford seeking his assistance. (CBC News)
» Pressure mounts on Pierre Poilievre to focus Conservative campaign on Donald Trump (Globe and Mail)
- Poilievre is facing mounting discontent over campaign manager Jenni Byrne’s handling of strategy and operations, multiple sources say, citing her unwillingness to pivot from attacks on the Liberal government record to a laser focus on the trade war launched by Trump.The Globe and Mail spoke to 17 Conservatives, who are close to the campaign, and they describe a dysfunctional organization with tensions rising as public-opinion polls show the Liberals now ahead of the Conservatives.They say Ms. Byrne has belittled campaign workers; given top staff positions to people who work for her consulting company; and discounted advice from party stalwarts, including onetime cabinet ministers, premiers and top advisers to former prime minister Stephen Harper.
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At a campaign stop in North York, Poilievre dismissed the suggestion that he needs to focus his campaign more squarely on the US threat, saying the promised reinvestment tax cut would bring billions of dollars into the economy to help Canada fight Trump’s unfair tariffs “from a position of strength.” “We will be a nation that rewards strivers, builders, entrepreneurs and workers — an economic fortress that will allow us to be stronger, self-reliant … stand on our own two feet and stand up to Donald Trump,” he said. (CP)
» Pierre Poilievre is zeroing in on seats held by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s party in areas where there’s a history of “orange-blue” swings. It’s a relatively rare political phenomenon in large swaths of the country, but one that’s quite common in areas where the federal Liberal brand is weaker — most notably on B.C.’s Vancouver Island, where six of the seven seats are held by New Democrats. (CBC News)
» Pierre Poilievre aligns with Bloc Québécois just as Jagmeet Singh says he ‘will never support’ Conservatives » Pierre Poilievre would not contest Quebec’s controversial French-language law in a Supreme Court challenge if the Conservatives form government, he said Saturday, as he declared “provinces have the right to make their own laws.” Poilievre’s announcement came the same day his path to power narrowed as NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ruled out propping up a Conservative government in a minority Parliament, meaning Poilievre would now likely have to seek an alliance with the separatist Bloc Québécois should the Conservatives win the most seats in the election but fail to form a majority government.(Toronto Star)
» Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh likes to paint a dark portrait of evil landlords and for-profit developers preying on innocent renters and homebuyers. While his anti-corporate posturing might be a good way to signal his values to some voters, it’s not the way to get housing built. At a recent campaign stop, Mr. Singh said, “We need to actually stop big corporations from ripping people off when it comes to their homes,” warning of the evils of companies pricing out working and middle-class families by snatching up real estate. His policy announcement was thin on details, but it involves working with nonprofits and co-ops to build over 100,000 rent-controlled homes on federal land by 2035. It’s a nice idea, as far as it goes. (Globe and Mail)
» Less than a year after her shocking by-election loss, Liberal candidate Leslie Church says her reception at doorsteps this time could not be more different. “It’s like night and day,” the Toronto—St. Paul’s hopeful said Friday, smiling broadly while taking a break from campaigning at a St. Clair Avenue West coffee shop. Last June, “there was a lot of fatigue around Justin Trudeau.” (Toronto Star)
