Original Publish Date » April 15 , 2025
Last Updated » 2 weeks
The Polls
Liberal lead over Conservatives holding
- Liberals 44.1% / Conservatives 37.9% / NDP 8.2% / BQ 5.3% / Green 2.0% / PPC 1.6%
The Liberals have held a consistent lead of six or seven points in the national polling average since the second week of the campaign and remain favoured to win a majority government if the election were held today. The Conservatives are holding at more support than they’ve had in the last three elections, but it is not high enough to win when the Liberals have picked up so much of the Bloc Québécois and NDP vote. Those two parties are on track for significant seat losses. (CBC Poll Tracker – April 15, 2025)
CBC Poll Tracker shows steady Liberal lead, with larger margins in Ontario and Quebec
Abacus Data President and CEO David Coletto says Liberal numbers are even better in regions than nationally
Angus Reid Institute says Liberal lead softens as focus on Trump slips; gender divide widens, CPC make gains among men over 34
- Liberals 45% / Conservatives 39% / NDP 7% / BQ 7% / Green 1%
As the runway shortens for all parties to make gains and lock in votes in this federal election campaign, new data from the Angus Reid Institute shows the race tightening between the incumbent Liberals and the challenger Conservatives.
On The Campaign Trail
Mark Carney rides the anti-Trump sentiment on the campaign trail, and voters like it
- On the question of who Canadians see as the best person to deal with Trump, surveys show a clear edge for Carney. “It’s an advantage on an issue that, for a large swath of voters, they’re currently using to assess who they’re going to support,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at Leger Marketing, a polling firm.
- Trump’s trade war — and his threat to use “economic force” to compel Canada to join the US — have dominated the news cycle in Canada for months. The White House has placed large import taxes on Canadian products such as steel and aluminum, with potentially more on the way for lumber and pharmaceuticals. Once a week during the election, Carney has halted campaign activities to meet with his cabinet in Ottawa on the issue. (Bloomberg)
Liberal Leader Mark Carney has renounced his British and Irish citizenships, pays his taxes in Canada
- Carney, who was born in Canada, acquired Irish citizenship decades ago through his family ancestry and got his U.K. passport in 2018 while working overseas as the governor of the Bank of England. Carney’s wife is also British-born. “His other citizenships were renounced before Mr. Carney was sworn in as prime minister,” the campaign spokesperson said.
- Dual citizenship of other leaders has been a source of controversy in the past. In the 2019 federal election, for example, former Conservative leader Andrew Scheer failed to publicly disclose he’s a U.S. national — and he kept his American citizenship after he lost the election. (CBC)
At least seven Conservative MPs, including the Deputy Conservative leader, invested in Brookfield, Liberal Leader Mark Carney’s former company while attacking him for running the investment giant
- Disclosure reports filed to the Office of the Conflict of Interest show that seven Conservative MPs, including deputy leader Melissa Lantsman and two former shadow ministers, disclosed owning stock in investment firm Brookfield Asset Management and related companies since 2024. (Investigative Journalism Foundation)
- Ian Brodie, a former chief of staff of prime minister Stephen Harper, believes the best way to usher in deregulation in Canada — a priority for Conservative leader Poilievre — is to reduce the head count of the public service and fast. “Once you deprive the public service of the people to create policies, guidelines and regulations and letters and contract documents and so on and so forth, the burden on society is reduced,” Brodie told an audience at the Canada Strong and Free Network’s annual conference in downtown Ottawa on April 11. (Ottawa Citizen)
