Original Publish Date » April 1 , 2025
Last Updated » 3 weeks

The Numbers

» Liberals continue to widen lead over Conservatives »

  • Liberals 43.2% / Conservatives 37.4% / NDP 8.5% / BQ 5.6% / Green 2.4% / PPC 2.1%

The gap between the Liberals and Conservatives continues to grow as the Liberals gain more support from the NDP and Bloc Québécois. With growing leads in Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada and British Columbia, the Liberals would win a big majority government if an election were held today, with all other parties likely to suffer seat losses. (CBC Poll Tracker)

» New data from the Angus Reid Institute finds voter intention unchanged over the last week, with the Liberal Party holding an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, while the fortunes of the NDP and Bloc remain similarly unchanged. Asked how they intend to vote, 46% of Canadian voters say they will support the Liberals, compared to 38% for the Conservative Party, Angus Reid has the NDP at 7% and Bloc Québécois also at 7%.

Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to maintain an advantage among most demographic groups. Men aged 35- to 54-years-old are the only age-gender segment to be more likely to vote Conservative. The Liberals otherwise lead between four points (men older than 55) and 27 points (women older than 55). (ARI)

» Liberals increase their lead in the polls (CPAC published March 31 evening)

On The Campaign Trail

» The Conservatives have dropped a second candidate in the election race, in a single day. Stefan Marquis was running for the Conservatives in the Montreal riding of Laurier—Sainte-Marie. Recent social media posts by Marquis promote popular right-wing conspiracy theories, including that Bill Gates is trying to manipulate public health for profit through vaccines, and that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was “provoked” by the expansion of NATO. (CTV)

» Conservative candidate Mark McKenzie – who sits as a city councillor in Windsor, Ontario – booted after CTV News uncovers audio of him saying Justin Trudeau should receive death penalty (CTV)

» Embattled Toronto-area Liberal candidate Paul Chiang dropped out of the race, taking himself off the ballot in Markham — Unionville, Ontario, just hours after the RCMP told CBC News it’s looking into whether he broke the law by suggesting people turn a Conservative candidate running in a nearby riding into the Chinese consulate to collect a bounty. It comes after Liberal Leader Mark Carney said on Monday that Chiang could stay on after apologizing for his “deeply offensive comments” and “terrible lapse of judgment.” (CBC)

» A majority of Canadians support cancelling a $19-billion contract to buy American warplanes and instead opting for European alternatives. A poll by Nanos Research found 62% of Canadians surveyed support, or somewhat support, scrapping a federal government deal to buy 88 F-35 Lightning planes from US defence contractor Lockheed Martin. The poll also found only18% oppose, and 3% somewhat oppose, such a measure. Another 17% were undecided. (Globe and Mail)

» Nanos survey also found 66% of Canadians want Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to obtain his national-security clearance so he can receive briefings on foreign interference from Canada’s national security agencies. So far, Poilievre has refused. (Globe and Mail)

» Conservative nomination candidates in the Greater Toronto Area, Calgary, and some British Columbia ridings say they have been unfairly denied the right to contested nominations by backroom party operatives. Some say they were led to believe that meeting fundraising targets would significantly boost their chances, but even after raising tens of thousands of dollars they were ultimately denied entry into the race. (The Hill Times)

Also

» The consumer carbon tax is gone as of today. Mark Carney cancelled the fee on his first day as prime minister, signing a directive for the fuel charge to be removed on April 1. (CBC)

» Alberta Premier Danielle Smith plans post-election panel to gauge Albertans’ appetite for referendum. Responding to a question Saturday on support for separation, Smith says she is looking to hear from all Albertans after the federal election, giving voters a chance to raise any issue, including leaving Canada. (CTV)

» At a Florida far-right fundraising gala, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith blames Trudeau-Carney ‘quick switcheroo’ for Liberal popularity. “That’s why they booted their leader out in order to choose a new one,” Smith said alongside MAGA influencer Ben Shapiro, comparing the replacement of former prime minister Justin Trudeau with Liberal leader Mark Carney to the American Democrats replacing former U.S. president Joe Biden with former vice-president Kamala Harris as nominee in the last U.S. election. “And when you do a quick switcheroo on a brand-new face, sometimes it gives you a little bit of a surge. That’s the point that we’re at in Canada right now.” (CTV)