Original Publish Date » April 8 , 2025
Last Updated » 2 weeks

The Polls

Liberals remain favourites as campaign approaches halfway mark

  • Liberals 44.0% / Conservatives 36.9% / NDP 8.7% / BQ 5.5% / Green 2.4% / PPC 1.8%

The Liberals have been holding a steady lead over the Conservatives in the polling average and would be heavily favoured to win a majority government if an election were held today. The New Democrats and Bloc Québécois, struggling to make headway in the polls, are on track to suffer significant seat losses. (Eric Grenier – CBC Poll Tracker – April 8, 2025)

  • “The Liberals would be highly likely to win the most seats, and very likely a majority government, if an election were held today. The party could win 200 seats or more for the first time in its history on current polling numbers,” Grenier wrote.
  • “The Conservatives would form a sizeable opposition, while the Bloc and NDP would see their seat holdings significantly reduced.”
  • The Conservatives have dropped below the 37% threshold in the Poll Tracker for the first time in nearly two years.

Eric Grenier says Liberals could gain seats in the West

Liberal lead holds, while Liberal vote commitment intensifies (Angus Reid Institute)

  • Angus Reid polling data shows 46% of eligible Canadian voters say they will support their Liberal candidate, while only 36% say this of the Conservatives. The New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois are both supported by 7%.
  • Choosing between Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, 50% say Liberal Leader Mark Carney would be the better prime minister, while only 28% say this of the Conservative leader.
    • More than half of Canadians (55%) view Mark Carney positively, compared to 34% for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
    • Poilievre is viewed unfavourably by 60% of Canadians, while 38% say this about Mark Carney.
    • 72% of Conservative voters say they are locked-in and will not change their mind before they cast a ballot.
    • However, the Liberals are also making headway in closing the commitment gap. 62% of Liberal voters say they are very committed, up significantly from 46% in March.
    • The Liberal Party leads by 11 points over the Conservatives in British Columbia and 16 points in Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals lead the Bloc Québécois 39% to 30%, where the Conservatives are down to 22%.

Opinions

Mark Carney’s housing plan is a big step forward

  • The biggest component of Carney’s plan is the direct involvement of the federal government in building homes. A new agency called Build Canada Homes would act as a developer of affordable housing, including on lands owned by the federal government. Even at the peak of previous federal involvement in the housing market, whether it was the co-operative housing boom of the 1970s or the post-war buildout of the late 1940s, the federal government never got this directly involved. Then again, the housing crisis has never been as dire in Canada as it is right now. (National Observer)

On The Campaign Trail

‘Prefabricated and modular housing are the future’ Liberal Leader Mark Carney unveils new housing plan

At Poilievre’s Edmonton rally, his greatest strength and his greatest weakness are revealed

  • Every person I spoke with said some version of this. Everyone liked Trump and didn’t think Poilievre should shy away from the comparison. Nobody believed the polls that put Carney in the lead. When I compared notes with a reporter from the Edmonton Journal later on, he’d had the same conversations. Then Stephen Harper took the stage. Pandemonium. I retreated into the press pit. This was a rare appearance: Harper has endorsed previous Conservative leaders, but never campaigned for them. (National Observer)

Harper says Canada’s problems not created by Trump as he endorses Poilievre (Globe and Mail)

  • Stephen Harper appeared at Pierre Poilievre’s rally in Edmonton on Monday night to introduce the Conservative Leader to a crowd of thousands who packed into at a warehouse south of the city.
  • Harper was a prominent member of the right-wing Reform and Alliance parties. Harper served 9 years as the prime minister of Canada, from 2006 to 2015. Throughout his time in office, Harper slashed government, research, and science programs; greatly reduced government transparency.
  • Harper left the scene in 2015 after losing to Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party, and due to his unpopularity and divisiveness, remained in the background, supporting Trump and appearing at Mar-a-Lago , appearing on Ben Shapiro‘s podcast, appearing on a far-right PragerU video
  • Harper criticized the PM Justin Trudeau’s handling of the renegotiation of NAFTA, started by Trump, stating that Trudeau was too unwilling to make concessions to the US (Bloomberg / National Post)
  • While Harper, who stayed for Poilievre’s hour-long speech, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith was not in attendance.

The international network that ties Pierre Poilievre to Jordan Peterson (National Observer)

  • Poilievre’s “Canada First” approach might put him on a collision course with Trump in the short term – but the two have a “shared worldview that is going to lend itself to an extremely collaborationist approach once in power,” said Naomi Klein, a pre-eminent progressive journalist and author of bestselling books on climate and the right like Doppelganger, The Shock Doctrine and This Changes Everything. “What that means is protecting Canadian sovereignty in name, while giving Trump access to Canadian water — and everything else he wants.”Poilievre’s platform is advancing key tenets of the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC), she said. ARC describes itself as an “international movement”that rejects “the inevitability of decline” and brings together an “alliance … covering business, technology, culture, law, academic, the arts, and more” to “re-lay the foundations of our civilisation.” Its advisory board comprises several high-profile former conservative politicians from around the world.

At a press conference in Victoria on Monday, Liberal Leader Mark Carney outlined a number of new conservation measures and promised to create at least 10 new national parks and marine conservation areas, as well as 15 new urban parks.

Also

  • Who Stands to Win in Poilievre’s Canada: Right-Wing Media (Maclean’s)
  • The three major political parties – Liberal, Conservative, and New Democratic parties – will see a full slate of candidates in the April 28 federal election. Spokespeople for each party confirmed that they have candidates contesting each of the 343 ridings.
  • Ontario defers tax collection for businesses amid Trump tariff fallout (Global News)