The Polls

Liberals leading in tightening race, still hold the seat advantage

  • Liberals 42.3% / Conservatives 38.6% / NDP 8.6% / BQ 6.0% / Green 2.3% / PPC 1.4%

While the margin between the Liberals and the Conservatives has tightened, the Liberals still hold a wider lead than they had going into the last two elections and are favoured to win the most seats thanks to their edge in Ontario, Quebec, B.C. and Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives still trail in the polling average in these battlegrounds, while the Bloc Québécois and New Democrats remain on track to suffer significant seat losses. (CBC Poll Tracker – April 25, 2025)

Trump Threat

Just 16% of Canadians polled by Leger say Canada has a good relationship with the U.S., compared to 15% for ties with Russia

  • Meanwhile, 36% of Canadians say Ottawa has a good relationship with Beijing, while the number ranks higher than 75% for ties with Mexico, the European Union and the U.K.
  • “When Canadians give their relationship with the United States such a really horrible evaluation, it’s largely attributable to our expectations about that relationship, which are generally considerably better” than the current situation, said Jack Jedwab, president and CEO of the Association for Canadian Studies. (The Canadian Press)

Trump has renewed his threat for Canada to become the 51st state, but party leaders on the campaign trail say it will ‘never’ happen

  • “I have to be honest, as a state, it works great,” Trump said. “As a nation, considering the fact that, you know, 95 per cent of Canada, what they do is they buy from us, and they sell to us … it doesn’t make sense. If we needed something, that would be a different subject.”
  • Mark Carney, who is running in the election as Liberal party leader but remains prime minister of a caretaker government, reiterated on Thursday that it would “never happen,” noting he told this to Trump in that phone call.
  • “The president has certain things in his mind that he reverts back to all the time,” Carney told reporters.
  • “He raises it all the time, OK, but then the question is what’s going to be done with it and does he understand where we stand, but more particularly where I stand, he is under no illusions: never, absolutely not, never, move on.” (Global News)

On The Campaign Trail

One-on-one with Liberal Leader Mark Carney

(Video 18:35 min)

Liberal Leader Mark Carney recently spent two days in British Columbia in his attempt to court voters on the West Coast. The province is at the heart of the affordability crisis, so how will Carney differ from the previous Liberal government, where life became more challenging for Canadians? Carney sat down with Global BC’s Richard Zussman in Richmond to discuss his leadership, courting NDP votes, the housing crisis, resource development and the drug crisis.

Tensions with Conservative Nova Scotia Premier simmered as federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre made his sole stop in the province

  • Poilievre’s sole campaign trip to Nova Scotia ended without meeting Premier Tim Houston, who did not attend Poilievre’s Trenton, N.S., rally just minutes from Houston’s own provincial riding. While Houston had previously said he would stay out of the federal campaign, sources say there has been tension between the two leaders for months. During last year’s provincial election, Houston told reporters he would not be inviting Poilievre to campaign with him, saying he’s not a member of any federal party. (CBC)
  • “Premier Houston sends his best. He would be here tonight but he’s a busy man,” Peter MacKay told a cheering crowd, though Mr. Houston was in the province with no publicly scheduled appearances. (Globe and Mail)
  • Poilievre’s strained relationship with Ontario Premiere Doug Ford, another Progressive Conservative, is well documented.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is campaigning in what polls suggest are Conservative-safe ridings today as election day approaches (The Canadian Press)

Pierre Poilievre says he’ll honour Ottawa’s auto agreements — but not the Liberals’ EV quota rules (Toronto Star)