Heading into final weekend, Liberals remain favourites to win

  • Liberals 42.5% / Conservatives 38.7% / NDP 8.6% / BQ 6.0% / Green 2.2% / PPC 1.4%

While the margin between the Liberals and the Conservatives has tightened, the Liberals still hold a wider lead than they had going into the last two elections and are favoured to win the most seats thanks to their edge in Ontario, Quebec, B.C. and Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives still trail in the polling average in these battlegrounds, while the Bloc Québécois and New Democrats remain on track to suffer significant seat losses. (CBC Poll Tracker – April 26, 2025)

iPolitics » The long-running drama playing out behind the scenes between Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s team and the federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre has erupted in full view of the public in the dying stages of the 2025 election.

  • If the Conservatives lose, and Poilievre is defeated in his Carleton riding, could it be lights out on his leadership?
    “If Poilievre loses his seat? He’s done. He’s gone,” said one Conservative source. “And so is Jenni. And if the Liberals win a majority, the knives will be out for Jenni as well. There’ll have to be a graceful exit.” As for the Ford camp, the strategy appears to be holding steady: stay focused on provincial governance, keep some distance from Poilievre’s brand, and keep their options open.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre panics, schedules a last-minute rally in his Ottawa riding of Nepean amidst reports that he’s in danger of losing his seat

  • On Sunday night, Poilievre will meet with constituents in the rural Ottawa riding of Carleton — a seat he’s held since being first elected in 2004 at age 25 — on the eve of the federal election. Both the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail — citing unnamed federal and Ontario conservative sources — reported Thursday Poilievre could be in danger of losing his own seat. (Global News)

Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet issued a scathing assessment Friday of Canada as a country, and Quebec’s place in it as he made his case to Quebecers that only he would protect their interests.

  • “We are, whether we like it or not, part of an artificial country with very little meaning, called Canada,” Blanchet said in English during a campaign stop in Shawinigan, Que. (CTV)
  • Blanchet and the BQ are set to lose seats in this election.

As the federal campaign enters its final days, Mark Carney’s Liberals appear set to win a majority Monday, according to the Star’s poll aggregator, the Signal.

  • While Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have closed the gap nationally in terms of voter preference, that does not seem to be translating into additional seats for the official opposition party.
    “One thing you see is this flat line (in support) for the Conservatives in Ontario,” said Clifton van der Linden, a McMaster University political science professor and the CEO of Vox Pop Labs, the independent research organization that developed the Signal, which analyzes publicly available polling data in a supercomputer. (Toronto Star)