Éric Grenier, The Writ »

At the national level, the 15 pollsters had an average under-estimation of the Conservatives by 2.3 points. The Liberals were also under-estimated by 0.9 points, meaning the average miss on the margin between the two parties was just 1.4 points. The NDP and Greens were over-estimated by 1.9 and 0.7 points, respectively. This is very similar (eerily, even) to what happened in both the 2019 and 2021 elections.

The winner of the pollster sweepstakes was Mainstreet Research, with an astonishing total error of 1.2 points. Mainstreet was withing 0.2 percentage points for all the major parties, with the biggest “error” being a 0.6-point under-estimation for the Greens. It’s one of the lowest errors I’ve encountered in a federal election, so kudos to Mainstreet Research.

Tied for second in the rankings is Liaison Strategies and the Angus Reid Institute, which each had a total error of three points. Liaison had all parties within 0.7 points, while the ARI had them all within 1.3 points. Nanos Research also performed very well with a total error of five points and all parties within 1.5 percentage points.

There was a clear under-estimation of the Conservatives across the board.